In what may be a forerunner of the US election in November, Macron’s Party came in third in round 1 of snap parliamentary elections.
Note: The above chart is a projection based on round one of the election. Round two is July 7. Macron’s party is Renaissance, part of the Ensemble (Together) coalition.
Snap Elections
As background there were no regularly scheduled parliament elections in France. They are the result of Macron’s Party getting hammered in the European Parliament elections.
I discussed the setup in Marine Le Pen Set for Record Win, Macron Calls Snap French Election
The French President and the German Chancellor both suffered record defeats in the European Parliament election. Macron calls a surprise parliamentary election after defeat.
Understanding French Elections
French members of parliament are not elected on the basis of proportional representation, but instead through a complicated two-round vote across 577 constituencies where local dynamics play a big role.
France will go to the polls on Sunday June 30, with runoffs planned for July 7. In each constituency, if no candidate wins 50 percent of the vote in the first round, the top two candidates advance to the second round, as does any other candidate who got the support of at least 12.5 percent of registered voters. The candidate with the most votes in the second round wins the seat as a member of parliament.
The above explanation from Politico.
Historically, to prevent the far Right candidates from ever winning, the bottom candidates tend to drop out in hope the remaining candidate wins.
Round One of Snap Elections
Politico notes Emmanuel Macron’s election gamble spectacularly backfired, leaving his centrist alliance trailing the far right and far left.
Please consider What the French election results mean for Le Pen, Macron and Mélenchon
Voters have spoken in the first round of the crucial French legislative election, paving the way for a tense, uncertain week of campaigning before the runoff next Sunday.
Projections based on exit polls show an absolute majority is within reach for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally. That would force Emmanuel Macron, the French president, into appointing the first democratically elected far-right government in France’s modern history.
Marine Le Pen: Looking strong
The National Rally is on course to obtain its strongest-ever finish in the first round of a nationwide election. It is likely to have won dozens of seats even before the second round once the final results are tallied, including that of its presidential candidate Marine Le Pen, who secured her seat with more than 50 percent of the vote in her home turf of Hénin-Beaumont, in Northern France.Her sister, Marie-Caroline Le Pen, finished first in the western region of Sarthe, in what used to be a bastion of more conventional center-right candidates.
Jordan Bardella: Seeing himself up there
National Rally President Jordan Bardella, who is eyeing the premiership should his party prevail Sunday, didn’t criticize French President Emmanuel Macron’s camp in his speech Sunday night.Instead, he took aim at the left, which ranked second across the country.
Emmanuel Macron: Beaten and bruised
The biggest losers of the night appear to be Macron and his allies. [Macron’s party ironically is called Renaissance]. Significantly trailing both its rivals, the centrist coalition will likely lose dozens of the 250 seats it currently holds in the National Assembly, with little prospect of forming a new governing coalition. Early estimates showed the presidential camp was eliminated in nearly half of all districts. [Meaning half of Macron’s party could not muster 12.5 percent of the vote/]Many candidates running under the centrist banner refused to put Macron’s face on their election posters out of fear that his image would hinder their chances of being elected.
Gabriel Attal: In hangover mode
Attal, [Macron’s Prime Minister] once considered a rising star of French politics, admitted he was excluded from Macron’s sudden decision to call a snap election — and now has suffered a humiliating defeat in plain sight.Third-place candidates eager to avoid a National Rally win could be prompted to bow out of the race and pull their weight behind the candidate best-positioned to beat the far right.
Attal said “not one vote must go to the National Rally,” but only committed to withdraw when third to a “Republican candidate.” Meaning: not one of those radical leftists.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon: Weakened but not out
The left-wing alliance of France Unbowed, the Greens and the Socialists made a strong showing with 28.1 percent of the vote, but it has little chance of gathering a workable majority.
Demise of Renaissance/Ensemble
Macron’s Renaissance party lost half of its seats outright by failing to get at least 12.5 percent of the vote.
On top of that, Macron’s Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, is telling any Renaissance candidates in third place to stand down out hoping the radical left will win.
Wow.
Ensemble currently has 249 members of the National Assembly. It may shrink to as few as 70. Another wow.
The center in France has blown out.
By the way, Macron did not have the courage to face the nation. He had Attal go on TV instead.
France’s Far Right Celebrates Lead and Seeks Majority
The BBC reports France’s Far Right Celebrates Lead and Seeks Majority
Supporters of Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigration National Rally (RN) cheered as she said the president’s “Macronist bloc has been all but wiped out”.
RN was on course to win 33.2% of the vote, with a left-wing alliance behind on 28.1%, and the Macron alliance behind on 21%.
“I aim to be prime minister for all the French people, if the French give us their votes,” said 28-year-old RN party leader Jordan Bardella.
Never before has the far right won the first round of a French parliamentary election. The simple fact that it has become possible is historic, says veteran commentator Alain Duhamel.
What Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella want is an absolute majority of 289 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly.
Seat projections for next Sunday’s second round run-off votes suggest they may fall short.
Majority in Range
There are 577 seats in the National Assembly. It’s possible National Rally pulls off an outright majority.
Given Marine Le Pen’s priority is to become the next president of France, National Rally will be in a better position if it falls short and Jordan Bardella is not the next prime minister.
Debt brakes explain why.
Debt Brakes and Treaty Requirements About to Smash the EU
The EU has launched an Excessive Debt Proceeding against France.
In addition to the Excessive Debt Proceedings against many countries, every EU county has defense spending issues, climate spending issues, and demographic issues.
Be Careful of What You Wish
If National Rally achieves an outright majority, Jordan Bardella will emerge as Prime Minister.
Then what? The EU will immediately enforce debt and deficit rules it let France ignore for decades.
To achieve a government debt-to-GDP ratio of 60 percent, EU countries will have to reduce spending or raise taxes by 2 percent of GDP, on average, every year for 46 years.
Macron’s election gambit may very well be to transfer the problem to National Rally to fix.
Please see Debt Brakes and Treaty Requirements About to Smash the EU for details.
The problem is not fixable. So, if Le Pen wants to be the next French President, the National Rally should not want to be in power when fiscal hell breaks loose.