Will Biden stay in until the bitter end? Be forced out by the 25th amendment? Drop out voluntarily? Let’s discuss when and how. I have specific dates and reasons.
Betting Odds
The Betting Odds on Polymarket suggest a 60 percent chance that Biden drops out. But it does not specify how.
Biden can drop out voluntarily. In the voluntary category I include extreme pressure (but not threats) from friends, associates, and major contributors.
Biden can drop out involuntarily in several ways. Two ways are easy to count. The first way for Biden to be forced out is by the 25th Amendment. The second way is something that will eventually happen to all of us.
An ambiguous setup is Biden drops out under threat of the 25th. I’m not sure how one can prove that other than the majority of his staff voluntarily admits it, which I don’t think they would.
There is a third obscure involuntary way.
All In Good Conscience
I rule that option out.
How Close Are We to the 25th Amendment Approach?
“You could debate the exact order, but right now we’re about half way up this ladder,” says Nate Silver.
Much of 1-7 is well underway but desperation still clings.
Please Walk to Podium
Image from Axios on Biden Preparation.
How Long Has This Been Going On?
For those seeking a musical tribute: How Long Has This Been Going On?
The above version is from Ace.
Fact check on who first sang that: Originally written as a duet for Smarty in 1927, the song was later introduced in the 1928 musical Rosalie by Bobbe Arnst as Mary O’Brien. Adele Astaire and Jack Buchanan originally sang the song to describe the excitement of a first kiss.
The answer to the above question is at least three years and possibly much longer.
The question at hand now: How much longer can this possibly go on?
Timing
On July 1, I commented The DNC May Nominate Biden a Month Early to Stop Replacement Calls
The Democratic National Convention is August 19-22. Well who cares about that? We may find out on July 21 when the rules committee meets.
The DNC is meeting early to ensure the nominee is set by Ohio’s Aug. 7 deadline.
Q: Why speed it up further?
A: To make Biden the official presidential nominee and Kamala Harris the official VP nominee ASAP.
Q: OK, but what does that do?
A: Short answer, lots. Long answer below.
What Happens Then?
Please consider What happens if a presidential candidate dies or steps down?
If it happens before the nominating conventions, the assembled delegates at the conventions will select the new nominee from among other candidates or potential new entries into the race. If, for example, Barack Obama had died in advance of the 2008 convention, Hilary Clinton, John Edwards, and the rest of the Democratic primary field would have worked to curry favor from various delegates prior to the official nomination. Delegates would have then voted, and a new nominee would have been announced. The same process would have occurred had Obama simply dropped out of the race.
If the death comes after the candidate has been officially nominated, though, the two major parties have different rules for selecting a new candidate:
In the Democratic Party “the members of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) choose the new nominee during a special session called by the chair. Per the Task Force’s explainer, “The DNC chair is required to consult with Democratic congressional leadership and the Democratic Governors Association, and then reports to DNC members who choose.”
The Democrats actually engaged in this process in 1972, when vice presidential nominee Thomas Eagleton withdrew from the race, and was replaced by Sargent Shriver after a vote from the DNC.
The Republican Party, meanwhile, vests the power to choose a new nominee with the Republican National Committee (RNC). As the explainer lays out, “members would vote as part of their state delegation under the same vote distribution used for the convention itself, and delegation members could divide their votes if they did not agree. Alternatively, the Republicans could reconvene the national convention.”
It gets messier after ballots are printed and someone dies or is stopped out voluntarily or involuntarily shortly before the election.
But it’s not as bad as it seems. Voters cast their ballots not for a specific candidate but for a slate of electors pledged to that candidate through the electoral college.
The slate would not vote for a dead person or someone who is not running no matter what the cause. But this would be very confusing to the public.
This appears to be Biden’s handler’s battle cry,
Hang On Sloopy
At a minimum, Biden will try to hang on until July 21. That’s only 13 days from now.
If Biden resigns after the DNC makes it official, even if that’s before the convention, it kills any chance of an open convention.
Then if Biden drops out, the DNC will “choose the new nominee during a special session called by the chair.”
Forget about this nonsense “The DNC chair is required to consult with Democratic congressional leadership and the Democratic Governors Association.”
Consult? So what? The DNC will consult, then it will do what it wants.
Q: What’s that?
A: The obvious: nominate Kamala Harris
I do not believe Biden will last until the election.
If so, the sooner Democrats can dump him the better, with one important exception. The DNC wants to control the process rather than have an open convention free-for-all.
Look for an official nomination announcement on July 21, 22, or 23. My guess is Biden becomes the official nominee on July 22, two weeks from today.
Then sometime before the convention, look for Biden to “voluntarily” quit (perhaps told to quit or else face the 25th amendment) sometime between July 22 and Ohio’s August 7 deadline.
As long as I am going out on a limb, let’s go further. Look for Biden to be off the ticket sometime between August 1-5, replaced by Kamala Harris. This conveniently resolves any potential issue with Ohio and allows (forces) the convention to get excited over Kamala.
The liberal media wants an open convention for obvious reasons (excitement, big party). And the media generally does not want Kamela. This is the ongoing battle right now.
There’s quite a bit of speculation here so let’s see.
Regardless …
The Democrats Got Their Dream Wish, Now They Have to Live With It
That dream is about to morph into Kamala, one way or another, sooner or later.
The sooner it happens, the more time Democrats have to adjust. But the DNC cannot let that happen too soon or it leads to an open convention.
Meanwhile, please note a Post-Debate USA Today-Suffolk Poll Has Grim News for President Biden
Also, I contend a recession has begun. If so, we could easily see a red wave. For discussion of the economics, please see Weak Data Says a Recession Has Already Started, Let’s Now Discuss When