Walz is more progressive than Harris and she needs to move to the middle. What Happened?
Harris Taps Tim Walz
The Wall Street Journal reports Harris Picks Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as Running Mate
Vice President Kamala Harris picked Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her vice-presidential running mate, selecting an avuncular Midwesterner and former high-school teacher who in recent years has signed into law policies popular with the Democratic base.
Walz wasn’t widely known outside of Minnesota before his name appeared on Harris shortlists. But he gained some Democratic fans outside his state in recent weeks for television interviews that hit at former President Donald Trump and his running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, without being overly nasty. He called the pair “weird,” a word that went viral among Democrats.
But Shapiro’s selection might have also angered some progressives because he has supported private-school vouchers and is a vocal supporter of Israel at a time when some activists on the left have condemned the Biden administration’s handling of the war in Gaza. Harris’s choice of Walz was earlier reported by CNN.
Trump’s campaign in a statement suggested the selection represented a doubling down on progressivism. “It’s no surprise that San Francisco Liberal Kamala Harris wants West Coast wannabe Tim Walz as her running-mate,” the statement said. “Walz has spent his governorship trying to reshape Minnesota in the image of the Golden State.”
Minnesota Republicans have suggested Walz was slow to call out the National Guard to address rioting that started after the Minneapolis police murder of George Floyd in 2020.
A Nice Choice?
Nate Silver says Tim Walz is a Minnesota Nice Choice.
Wikipedia defines “Minnesota Nice” — the property stereotypically associated with the home state of Kamala Harris’s new running mate, Gov. Tim Walz — as follows:
Minnesota nice is a cultural stereotype applied to the behavior of people from Minnesota, implying residents are unusually courteous, reserved, and mild-mannered compared to people from other states and more akin to their Canadian neighbors in Northern Ontario. The phrase also implies polite friendliness, an aversion to open confrontation, a tendency toward understatement, a disinclination to make a direct fuss or stand out, apparent emotional restraint, and self-deprecation. It is sometimes associated with passive-aggression.
Playwright and corporate communications consultant Syl Jones suggested that Minnesota nice is not so much about being “nice” but is more about keeping up appearances, maintaining the social order, and keeping people (including non-natives of the state) in their place.
This was a choice designed to maintain the social fabric of the Democratic Party, and avoid news cycles about a disappointed left and Democrats’ internal squabbling over the War in Gaza. Or at least, that’s what I think it was: we’ll need to learn more about Harris’s deliberation process. I’m not inclined to be too deferential to any political candidate, but it’s plausible that there were vetting issues with the runner-up, Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania. Harris certainly has more information about the internal feeling within the Democratic caucus than I do, or she may just have thought the chemistry of a Harris-Shapiro ticket wouldn’t work.
It’s a nice pick: Walz, a two-term governor and six-term U.S. Representative, is from the family of Tim Kaine-style VP choices: inoffensive, unlikely to cause any harm, “safe”. Although maybe that’s unfair: Walz is likely to be better on the stump than Kaine [Senator Tim Kaine from Virginia]. If you surveyed Democratic members of Congress, he’d probably be who they’d choose. But I believe he’s probably the wrong choice, a step back toward the Democratic Party’s instincts to triangulate instead of the boldness the Harris campaign has displayed so far.
Harris Swings Left or Does She?
Silver thinks Walz is a nice choice but “Shapiro was the higher-upside option that was probably worth the risk.“
I don’t know enough other than to say Shapiro has some issues with the Progressive Left. Was there anything else in the closet?
Perhaps the choice was to avoid riots in Chicago over Palestinian issues. But Walz will have some issues with with the middle.
For example, The Journal noted Walz supported universal free school meals for students, voting rights for the formerly incarcerated, driver’s licenses for migrants who crossed the border illegally, recreational marijuana and signed a law that made abortion a “fundamental right.”
Harris has tried to move to the middle (or at least claims to).
She now supports fracking of all things. This is why: Pennsylvania is the second biggest producer of natural gas after Texas.
I pointed out the natural gas issue with Pennsylvania many months ago, and said that the issue could easily cost Biden the state.
So now? Harris says she supports fracking. Does anyone believe her, especially with her tapping Walz?
Suboptimal Choices
Trump and Harris likely made suboptimal choices.
Trump did for sure. Vance was an outright bad pick that only MAGA supporters could love.
Both Trump and Harris needed to pick up swing voters.
Harris went with the Progressive core (possibly for reasons we don’t know) and Trump went with Vance for reasons we do know.
Trump looked in a mirror and saw Vance.
Thank You!
A Word About Polls
I suspect Harris is currently ahead, but we will not really know until a week to ten days after the Democratic National Convention. Too much overexcitement is baked in current polls.
Harris is the official nominee, so there’s plenty of time to prepare for a big party. And might I suggest it will be a bigger, better party than the Republican threw?
Trump droned on forever and ever amen. By the time he finished his acceptance speech, most people were in bed.
On August 4, I commented Due to Extreme FIMD, Trump is Now Behind, He May Need a Hard Recession to Win
I have a follow-up to that idea later this week. A recession is my base case.
So let’s see. Meanwhile, don’t be surprised if Trump slips further behind. We are in a momentum phase and need to discount some of that momentum. It’s likely to influence polls but may not stick once a discussion of issues comes into play.
Trump can easily go after the Progressive record of Kamala, especially with her pick of Walz.
This race will change if Trump can keep his foot out of his mouth and just stick to the issues. That’s the both the opportunity, and the problem.