Argentina humiliated as still not deemed a threat to Falkland Islands despite £229m deal

Argentina has signed a $300million (£229m) deal with Denmark that will see the South American country receive 24 F-16 fighter jets. 

Despite bolstering its airforce arsenal, the acquisition is unlikely to pose a significant threat to the UK’s defence of the islands.

Tensions over possession of the Falkland Islands have risen in recent years, with Argentina’s President Javier Milei this year suggesting that his government was developing a “roadmap” towards regaining sovereignty of the island.

But the state of the Argentine armed forces means that the addition of aircraft is unlikely to move them into a position where they could credibly assert a threat against British sovereignty.

For decades, investment in the country’s armed forces has declined, with spending per GDP falling from 4.72 percent in 1978 to 0.4 percent in 2022. Argentina has failed to breach the 1 percent barrier of spending in over two decades.

Conversely, Britain’s spending on defence remains relatively consistent at around 2 percent with the government pledging to raise this to 2.5 percent “when economic conditions allow.”

Argentina’s economy remains turbulent, a significant factor in President Milei’s election victory which centred on cuts to public services.

Whilst there has been some improvement as a result of these cuts, they naturally are not conducive to the expensive modernisation that would be required to make the country into a significant threat to British ownership.

Secondly, the island is significantly better defended now than it was in the 1970s. With 1,500 personnel permanently stationed there, combined with Royal Navy patrols and RAF air superiority, the island’s defence would likely be robust enough to fend off any amphibious invasion until the arrival of reinforcements.

The purchasing of aircraft does little to bolster the ability of ground forces that for years have been underfunded and undertrained. 

Given the island sits 300 miles off of the coast of mainland Argentina, it would be the Argentinian Navy and Army which would require unrealistic upgrades for them to pose a threat to the island’s standing defence.

Additionally, the equipment is being bought from a NATO ally after being produced by a US company which significantly limits the freedom of Argentina to do with them as they please.  

An analysis by the UK Defence Journal read: “Even with F-16s in their arsenal, Argentina doesn’t have the budget to maintain or modernise its military to the extent needed for a credible regional challenge. In addition to financial issues, Argentina faces significant diplomatic limitations. Since the F-16s are American-made, any meaningful use of the jets would require U.S. approval, especially for maintenance and parts. This dependence makes it highly unlikely that Argentina could deploy them against British forces without facing major hurdles.”

Their reliance on US approval for maintenance and parts means that they would face significant hurdles should they wish to use them against Britain.

So whilst the purchase of 24 F-16s might sound impressive, it does little to elevate Argentina into a credible force on the global stage.