A 13 Foot Surge in Downtown Tampa Could Wipe Out 500,000 Homes

Just 25 miles or less can make a surge difference of 10 feet. It’s touch an go. Let’s discuss damages.

A 13 foot surge in downtown Tampa could wipe out the entire downtown area.

This Tweet posted in my edit. But if all you see is a Link below then click on this Update From Meteorologist Brian Bennett.

BOTTOM LINE:

🌊These two locations are only 25 miles apart, but it will make a WORLD of difference as to who receives the catastrophic surge.

🌊The counterclockwise winds around a hurricane means that locations (in the left quadrant) to the north of landfall will have offshore winds & marginal surge. Locations (in the right quadrant) to the south will have onshore winds & devastating surge.

PINELLAS COUNTY LANDFALL:

🌊A Pinellas County landfall means that downtown Tampa, St. Petersburg, & everyone adjacent to the Bay will have catastrophic flooding reaching twice the height of Helene’s surge.

🌊The estimated population impacted by a 10ft+ surge is around 510,000.

MANATEE COUNTY LANDFALL:

🌊A Manatee County landfall means that downtown Tampa, St. Petersburg, & everyone adjacent to the Bay will only have a less intense, perhaps marginal, surge. Tampa’s surge would be TEN FEET LESS than a landfall occurring 25 miles farther north in Pinellas.

🌊However, areas around Longboat Key & Siesta Key would have a slightly higher surge.

🌊The estimated population impacted by a 10 ft surge or greater would be around 200,000.

NOTE:

🌊I reached these forecast numbers by comparing data from Hurricane Michael with this storm, factoring in observations from the 1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane, local bathymetry/topography details, & knowledge about tropical systems.

🌊Neither scenario is ideal. Obviously folks in downtown St. Pete and downtown Tampa would prefer a much farther south landfall. With any luck this storm & it’s dangerous surge would dissipate. But.. unfortunately that’s not going to happen. So, it’s time to have realistic numbers so rescue crews, etc can plan accordingly.

FORECAST:

🌊As of the latest models, a landfall around Bradenton Beach is looking more likely. But, a slight wobble can take the storm either direction.

🌊These numbers are my forecast based on the best of my ability. But, every storm is different. Please follow guidance from the NHC and local officials.

Milton Regained Cat 5

Better Visualization of the Surge

That is a Much Better Simulation than I posted earlier today. Click on that link if the X embed does not display.

View From Space

X is having serious issues with embeds.

Why Tampa Is So Vulnerable

The Wall Street Journal explains Why the Tampa Area Is So Vulnerable to a Hurricane

Milton strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane again early Tuesday night as it barreled toward Florida’s west-central coast with maximum sustained winds of 165 miles an hour, according to the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters predicted a storm surge of 10 to 15 feet for the Tampa Bay area and up to 18 inches of rainfall across parts of Florida. Milton is expected to make landfall Wednesday night.

“If Milton stays on its course, this will be the most powerful hurricane to hit Tampa Bay in over 100 years,” the National Weather Service in Tampa said Tuesday. “No one in the area has ever experienced a hurricane this strong before in the area.”

The Tampa and St. Petersburg metro area is the most vulnerable to flooding damage in the U.S., according to a 2015 study by risk modeler Karen Clark & Co. Among the reasons the report cited: a shallow continental shelf off the coast and a funnel effect in Tampa Bay that together create the potential for a huge buildup of water that can inundate neighborhoods.

In addition, the metro area has experienced a building boom in recent decades that has sent the population soaring to about 3.2 million. Much of the development is on low-lying ground, with poorly developed drainage systems. A third of the area’s residents live within storm-surge zones.

In 2010, the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council drew up the Tampa Bay Catastrophic Plan, in which a hypothetical Category 5 storm dubbed “Hurricane Phoenix” hit downtown Tampa with 160 mph winds and a 26-foot storm surge. The study projected that the city would have about 2,000 deaths and nearly $250 billion in damage.

In Tampa Bay, nearly 17,000 commercial properties and apartment buildings spanning 182 million square feet are in areas at high risk of flooding, according to real-estate data company CoStar Group. Billions of dollars of private and public funds have been invested in the redevelopment of downtown Tampa’s waterfront in recent decades. Many of these buildings are in vulnerable low-lying areas, according to data from CoStar.

“The way Tampa Bay is set up, it’s almost certain that they’re going to get a surge coming up into the bay,” said Neal Dorst, a meteorologist with NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami. “It’s going to have nowhere to go.”

If 3.2 million live in Tampa and 1/3 of them are in the surge zone that means over a million homes will be hard hit with damages.

If the potential max surge hits, anyone you stays will be lucky if they live. Homes are going to be washed away.

Corelogic Estimate for Helene

Please consider Final Estimated Damages for Hurricane Helene to be Between $30.5 Billion and $47.5 Billion

Insured losses are only $10.5 to $17.5 billion.

Barring a sudden change for the better, Milton may easily exceed that by 10 times.

Expect a Huge Florida Exodus

Florida never appealed to me as a place to live, but it’s the third most populous state after California and Texas.

Florida passed New York in 2013 or 2014.

The Great Florida Migration Is Coming Undone

The Wall Street Journal reports The Great Florida Migration Is Coming Undone

Anthony Holmes was part of the great Florida migration. In 2021, he moved from Virginia to a gated suburban community in Tampa.

He paid $550,000 for his five-bedroom home and spent another $50,000 on solar panels and interior improvements. When he had to move back to Virginia for work, Holmes expected to sell his house quickly. But since listing it in February, he has had no luck. He dropped the price five times to $583,900 and would be happy simply to break even.

“I can’t unload the thing,” Holmes said. “In eight months, I’ve had zero offers. No one even showed up to the open houses. Nobody.”

Across much of Florida and especially along the western coast, a surplus of inventory and dwindling buyer interest are slowing sales and keeping homes on the market longer. That is cooling off what had been one of America’s biggest housing booms this decade.

“It’s definitely been a sizable increase over the last couple of years in inventory, and that sets us apart from other states,” said Brad O’Connor, chief economist at Florida Realtors. “We could see some price deterioration in some areas.” [Uh… like everywhere ]

Insurance premiums in Florida are up as much as 400% over the past five years in certain areas, one of the fastest increases in the country.

They are bound to become even steeper following this hurricane season. Hurricane Helene could result in more than $15 billion in property damage, Moody’s Analytics said.

“People are making different choices as a result of the rise in insurance costs,” said Katherine Frattarola, who runs HUB Private Client. Her firm advises wealthy homeowners.

What’s Next?

Even under the best of scenarios as to where Milton hits, there will be catastrophic damage somewhere unless the Hurricane de-intensifies soon.

Homeowners without both wind and flood insurance are going to have their claims denied or trivialized.

Insurance costs will soar, and I would not be surprised to see insurers throw in the towel completely.

Hard to know what to say other than: Please evacuate, best wishes, and good luck.