Nate Sliver applied convention bounce adjustments to Trump and Harris, both negative. What happens if the Harris adjustment is removed?
By the way, I purposely phrased the question to produce a yes answer, even if barely.
I do that about half the time. Betteridge’s law of headlines is an adage that states: “Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no.”
Oops the Adjustment Disappeared
Please consider the Silver Bulletin Oops! I made the convention bounce adjustment disappear.
Without the adjustment, she’d have a ~50 percent chance to win the Electoral College rather than ~40 percent, a ~70 percent chance of winning the popular vote rather than ~60 percent, a ~35 percent chance of winning Arizona rather than ~25 percent, and so forth.
Why wouldn’t she be favored? Part of it is the narrowness of her lead in the Blue Wall states. Without the convention bounce adjustment, the model projects her with an average of 277 electoral votes versus 261 for Trump. But it also has her losing a lot of elections in agonizingly close fashion — so the median rather than the average outcome is basically an Electoral College tie. Her biggest problem remains in Pennsylvania, where she barely has a lead at all. Without Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes Georgia and its 16 electoral votes wouldn’t be enough to give her a winning map, even if Harris retains Michigan and Wisconsin.
I don’t think it’s correct to say that the polls taken “as is” today (without any convention bounce magic) show Harris winning.
Personally, I’m probably closer to the 45-ish percent probability that Polymarket shows for Harris rather than our model’s 38 percent.
But the convention bounce adjustment has been part of our model since its inception in 2008. The whole point of building a model is that you set up rules ahead of time so you aren’t tempted to make ad hoc adjustments, which might reflect your political leanings or what your readers want.
And the fact is that if you’d asked me a few weeks ago where I thought the polls would be today, I’d have thought Harris would be polling better than she is — say, a 4- or 5-point lead in national polls and 2 or 3 points in Pennsylvania. You’re welcome to debate the precise mechanics the model uses, but directionally, it’s hard to escape the conclusion that she’ll need the debate not just to hold serve but to regain momentum.
The Blue Wall Remains a Problem
Trump can can afford to lose Georgia if he wins Pennsylvania.
Alternatively, Trump could lose Arizona and Nevada if he wins Pennsylvania.
Trump has many ways to win. Harris need a clean sweep of the Blue Wall (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania).
Is the Silver Model Biased In Favor of Harris?
That’s another Betteridge gotcha. The answer is clearly not despite the following admission from Silver.
“Personally, I plan to vote for Harris, and while I haven’t done a comprehensive survey of Silver Bulletin subscribers, I suspect they lean something like 3:1 for Harris over Trump.”
Recession Adjustment
If you want to complain that the headline answer is no on the basis of a tie instead of Trump is ahead, I would suggest that Silver has not properly accounted for the state of the economy at recession time.
Silver Bulletin Economic Index
I have no idea how that works, and I rather doubt Silver does either. The only way to find out for sure is for Silver to run a projection revising all of those except the CPI more negative.
I expect big improvements in the CPI and will write about that soon.
On the negative side, my opinion is nonfarm payrolls will look nothing like a positive adjustment by election time and they are not already.
My economic adjustment to the Silver model suggests Trump will be ahead even if Silver calls it a tossup.
Thus, my answer to the lead question is yes, not maybe.
Recent Economic Data
September 3: Construction Spending Growth Slows in May, Stops in June, Negative in July
September 5: Small Businesses Reducing Workers for the Last Four Months
September 5: Fed Beige Book Shows Flat or Declining Economy in 9 of 12 Fed Districts
September 6: Key Recession Indicator Gives Stronger Recession Signal in August
I see nothing positive in this. And weakening economies, especially recessions, are generally not good for the incumbent.
If Trump can avoid major gaffes he rates to win.
Bombshells
Genuine bombshells are rare. But there is a potential for one on Friday November 1. Just days before the election, Trump will be blessed with a BLS jobs report.
That could easily tip the election if enough people still have not cast votes.
Meanwhile, please ponder the current report: Payroll Report: Manufacturing Sheds 24,000 Jobs, Government Adds 24,000, Big Negative Revisions