A new AP-NORC polls shows nearly two out of three Democrats want Biden to exit the race.
AP-NORC Poll
Please consider a new AP-NORC Poll on Democrat Voter Preferences.
Nearly two-thirds of Democrats say President Joe Biden should withdraw from the presidential race and let his party nominate a different candidate, according to a new poll, sharply undercutting his post-debate claim that “average Democrats” are still with him even if some “big names” are turning on him.
The new survey by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, conducted as Biden works to salvage his candidacy two weeks after his debate flop, also found that only about 3 in 10 Democrats are extremely or very confident that he has the mental capability to serve effectively as president, down slightly from 40% in an AP-NORC poll in February.
The findings underscore the challenges the 81-year-old president faces as he tries to silence calls from within his own party to leave the race and tries to convince Democrats that he’s the best candidate to defeat Donald Trump. The poll was conducted mostly before Saturday’s assassination attempt on Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. It’s unclear whether the shooting influenced people’s views of Biden, but the small number of poll interviews completed after the shooting provided no early indication that his prospects improved.
About 6 in 10 Americans want Trump to withdraw — but relatively few Republicans are in that camp.
As for Biden, younger Democrats are especially likely to want to see him bow out – and to say they’re dissatisfied with him. Three-quarters of Democrats under the age of 45 want Biden to drop out, compared to about 6 in 10 of those who are older.
D.N.C. Aims to Push Biden Toward Nomination Next Week
The Democratic convention starts on Monday, Aug. 19, and runs through Thursday, Aug. 22.
Biden rates to be the official nominee long before then. The DNC rules committee meets July 21 and well before the convention, Biden will be the official nominee.
The New York Times reports D.N.C. Aims to Push Biden Toward Nomination Next Week
Leaders of the Democratic National Committee are moving swiftly to confirm President Biden as his party’s presidential nominee by the end of July, according to four people briefed on the matter who insisted on anonymity to discuss the sensitive deliberations.
The move would formalize Mr. Biden as the nominee at a moment when Democrats are torn over whether he should run again after his poor debate performance.
The process will effectively begin when the rules committee of the Democratic National Convention meets on a video call at 11 a.m. on Friday, followed by another party group on Sunday. All of the more than 4,000 delegates are expected to begin casting their ballots as soon as Monday, a process that is likely to take about a week. After that, the committee is expected to quickly hold the roll call, a tradition that typically occurs on the convention floor but is being held virtually this year.
The roll call process was planned long ago because of an Ohio requirement to have nominees by August 7 but Ohio changed its law.
There is no need for the DNC to meet early, but it will do so anyway.
House Democrats Warn DNC
The Hill reports House Democrats Warn DNC Against Moving Ahead with Virtual Roll Call to Nominate Biden
Members are circulating a letter to the DNC, which was obtained by The Hill, arguing it is “a terrible idea” to take an “unnecessary and unprecedented” roll-call vote, contending that it could “deeply undermine the morale and unity of Democrats … at the worst possible time.”
“There is no legal justification for this extraordinary and unprecedented action, which would effectively accelerate the nomination process by nearly a month,” the letter read, adding that the justification for the virtual roll call is no longer “valid.”
The members also noted that Biden has said to members of Congress in recent days that if a Democrat wants to challenge his nomination, they can do so at the convention. [That was a lie because the convention will be too late, by weeks].
Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), who is signing the letter, told The Hill in a brief interview that a “substantial number” of lawmakers are supportive of the effort. “They should do the right thing and pull down this dumb idea instead of accelerating the nomination by a full month,” he said.
It’s the Plan, Stupid!
My theory, but I have not yet found a single person who agrees, is that Biden (rather Biden’s handlers), want Biden to hang on until the DNC makes Biden the official nominee.
As discussed above, that will be before the end of the month. As soon as that happens, it kills an open convention and make it impossible for anyone other than Kamala Harris to become the nominee.
Understanding the Goal
If the real goal is to make it 100 percent sure that Kamala is on the ticket avoiding a messy open convention, then everything makes sense.
For discussion, please see Is Biden Bluffing or Do Democrats Have a Defendable Strategy?
Is it possible Biden’s handlers know exactly what they are doing?
That is the key question. I propose Biden is out, but he does not know it yet. Here’s my scenario.
Defendable Strategy Theory
- Biden has no idea what he is doing.
- If Biden drops out now we would have an open convention, and possibly a destructive one.
- Whoever is really calling the shots wants Biden to hang on at least until the DNC makes Biden/Harris the official candidates.
- Once Biden/Harris is official, there is no chance of an open convention, and Harris is guaranteed to be on the ticket.
- If Biden then drops out, the DNC will make Harris the Presidential candidate.
Does anyone disagree with any of those points?
Assuming those points are well agreed with, it does not take that much of a leap of faith to see Biden dropping out sometime between the end of July and the start of the convention on August 19.
That gives Biden over two weeks to make a major flub, have a medical doctor confirm he is unfit, or most of the Democrats in Congress decide it is time for him to go and Biden finally relents.
Under this theory, Biden only needs to hang on until the end of July.
Difficult to Prove My Theory Correct
Curiously, it is difficult to prove my theory correct. Suppose everything happens as I suggest and Biden drops out after he is nominated later this month.
Was that the plan, or happenstance?
That’s another beauty of my theory. No one can prove it except those who won’t. How convenient is that?
If Biden lasts through the end of the live convention on August 22, my theory bites the dust.
However, Biden dropping out early does not disprove my theory. It only means events progressed passed Biden’s or his handlers ability to contain them,
Biden Seeks Supreme Court Term Limits, Medical Debt Cancellation, Rent Controls
Whoever is behind Biden’s campaign has gone completely mad. Is the goal to make Vance and Trump look like centrists?
Please note Biden Seeks Supreme Court Term Limits, Medical Debt Cancellation, Rent Controls
Whoever is calling the shots may be completely insane from one perspective, yet have a plan to dump Biden that makes sense. Isn’t that special?!
We will find out by August 22.