Tue. Jun 18th, 2024

European Parliament Election Update and the “Anything to Stay in Power” Play

Tyler Mitchell By Tyler Mitchell Jun4,2024 #finance

The European Parliament elections have been underway for four days, ending today. Here are some live updates from Bloomberg.

Live Updates, Emphasis by Bloomberg

Much of the focus of the campaign has been on the far right, and parties who just fall short of that definition.

It’s fair to say that leaders including as Marine Le Pen are expected to pick up seats today, and that could galvanize opposition to some of the EU’s biggest policy initiatives, including the so-called Green Deal. It would lead to pressure for a harder line on migration.

The race for top EU jobs will start the moment counting ends.

Current European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, a German, remains the front-runner for a second term. That, however, depends on whether her center-right European People’s Party can build a stable majority in the new parliament.

Von der Leyen has suggested a possible shift to the right by signaling she’s open to working with parts of the European Conservatives and Reformists group, which includes Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has warned von der Leyen that such a move would jeopardize his support.

That is the precise scenario I laid out on Friday in my take The French President Will Get Crushed in the European Parliament Elections

Expect a surge in groups classified as “far right” in the European Parliament elections June 6-9. In France, Macron’s party will get pummeled as will the Greens everywhere.

In a highly tactical move, Italian premier Giorgia Meloni is the only EU leader who has chosen to lead an electoral list as she aims to convert her domestic support into a strong outcome for her Brothers of Italy (FdI) party.

The result could not only consolidate Meloni’s domestic power, but also cast her as the kingmaker in Brussels. She’s being courted by outgoing European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen on the centre-right, who’s coveting Meloni’s support to secure a second term, as well as France’s Marine Le Pen on the far-right, who wants her backing to merge far-right powers to create a supergroup in the European Parliament.

What Is the Far Right?

It is hard to say. In Poland it means support for Ukraine, except as applies to agricultural imports. Poland, Left and Right is hopping mad at grain imports from Ukraine hammering crop prices.

In France, Marine Le Pen has surged after dropping her plan to abandon the Euro. Nonetheless mainstream media still labels her Far Right because of her anti-immigration policies and because she does not support Ukraine.

In Italy, prime minister Giorgia Meloni is considered by many to be far right simply because of her anti-immigration stance.

I find it interesting that EuroNews labels Ursula von der Leyen “center right” despite the fact she currently wears a Green climate flag every day, figuratively speaking.

Can a coalition of the right plus the far right knock off Ursula von der Leyen?

From where I sit, I hope to say “Good Riddance”, but I doubt that happens. The far right won’t be a majority, but they will gain enough power to influence decisions.

Ursula will do whatever it takes to buy votes to stay in power. It’s the same in the US.

If she hangs onto power, expect Green policies to be watered down with a focus shift on China instead.

Update Synopsis

Bloomberg’s report today is essentially the same as my analysis on Friday. Ursula is courting Giorgia Meloni and so is Marine Le Pen.

Meloni will go with the most stable partner she can find. That likely will not be a conglomeration of the Right and Far Right.

Bloomberg commented “German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has warned von der Leyen that such a move would jeopardize his support.”

So what? His coalition in Germany would get blasted out of the water if a German election was held today. He is in no position to threaten anything.

Look for Meloni and Ursula to cut a deal leaving Scholz out of the loop unless very radical groups gain enough votes to dispense with Ursula outright. If that happens, things will get very messy.

That’s possible but unlikely, and it would be a real hoot if it happened.

Le Pen’s day will come, not in the European Parliament elections, but in the next French presidential elections.

Meanwhile, Back in the States

Does the “anything to stay in power play” sound vaguely familiar?

Biden is flouting the Supreme Court again on student aid, making promises that are not his to make on housing down payments, was involved in a kangaroo court to convict Trump, and is shielding Hunter Biden as much as he can.

Despite Trump being convicted and Biden calling him a felon, Trump is still ahead in the polls.

Regarding student debt, please see Student Debt Cancellation Is Extremely Unfair. Here Are 10 Reasons Why.

Regarding the sham trial, please see Trump Found Guilty – a Travesty of Justice for America

Trump was found guilty of a crime, but can anyone say what it is? Prosecutorial misconduct is dripping. It’s the judge, not Trump who belongs in prison.

I expect the conviction to be overturned.

Tyler Mitchell

By Tyler Mitchell

Tyler is a renowned journalist with years of experience covering a wide range of topics including politics, entertainment, and technology. His insightful analysis and compelling storytelling have made him a trusted source for breaking news and expert commentary.

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